Election results. Platform quotes. Documented switches. All sourced.
Percentage of the 11 seceding states carried by the Republican presidential nominee.
Source: National Archives, Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas
Political realignments rarely have single causes. Multiple factors contributed to Southern whites moving from Democratic to Republican. But the timing, geography, and the strategists' own admissions reveal what drove the shift.
The Civil Rights Act (1964) and Voting Rights Act (1965) triggered immediate defections. Goldwater's opposition to the Civil Rights Act won him five Deep South states—the first Republican victories there since Reconstruction.
The evidence: Strom Thurmond switched parties the same year. The five states Goldwater won had the highest Black populations in the nation.
Opposition to New Deal programs and support for free-market economics attracted some Southern voters. The Sun Belt's growth created a new business class aligned with Republican economics.
The evidence: But economic conservatism doesn't explain why the Deep South (poorest region) flipped before wealthier Upper South states.
The rise of the Religious Right in the late 1970s brought evangelical Christians into Republican coalition, particularly around social issues like abortion and school prayer.
The evidence: But evangelicals were largely Democratic until civil rights era; Jerry Falwell initially opposed integration.
White flight to suburbs created communities with different political interests than urban or rural areas.
The evidence: But suburban growth occurred nationwide; doesn't explain specifically Southern realignment.
Southern military bases and defense industry created communities receptive to hawkish foreign policy.
The evidence: But anti-communism was bipartisan; both parties were Cold War hawks through the 1960s.
Multiple factors shaped the modern Republican coalition. But the evidence—from timing to geography to the strategists' own words—shows that opposition to civil rights was the catalyst that began the realignment and the strategy that accelerated it.
In their own words. Click to read the full documents.
"Our new government is founded upon... the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery... is his natural condition."
"Our position is thoroughly identified with the institution of slavery... a blow at slavery is a blow at commerce and civilization."
"We stand for the segregation of the races... We oppose the elimination of segregation, the repeal of miscegenation statutes."
"The Democratic Party has abandoned the people... [The Civil Rights Act is] the worst, most unreasonable and unconstitutional legislation that has ever been considered."
"The Constitution does not permit any discrimination of any kind... But it is also true that the Constitution recognizes... the freedom to associate or not to associate."
"You start out in 1954 by saying 'n----r, n----r, n----r.' By 1968 you can't say that... So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights... now you're talking about cutting taxes."
The architects of the Southern Strategy explaining what they were doing and why.
"P emphasized that you have to face the fact that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to devise a system that recognizes this while not appearing to."
"The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are."
Contains a racial slur (partially censored). Atwater used this language to explain how explicit racism evolved into coded messaging.
"You start out in 1954 by saying 'N----r, n----r, n----r.' By 1968 you can't say 'n----r' - that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like 'forced busing,' 'states' rights,' and all that stuff... You're getting so abstract now, you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites."
"Some Republicans gave up on winning the African American vote, looking the other way or trying to benefit politically from racial polarization. I am here today as the Republican chairman to tell you we were wrong."
Before the Southern Strategy, the Republican Party had a century-long civil rights legacy. Understanding what they chose to abandon makes the strategic shift more significant.
Both parties split on the Civil Rights Act, but Republicans were MORE likely to vote yes than Democrats—especially in the Senate.
Without Republican votes, the Civil Rights Act would not have passed. The split was regional, not purely partisan: Northern Democrats and most Republicans voted yes; Southern Democrats voted no.
GovTrack / Congressional Record →In 1964, Republicans faced a choice: the Rockefeller path (civil rights, Northern moderates) or the Goldwater path (Southern whites opposed to civil rights). They chose Goldwater. That choice shaped the next six decades.
The Southern Strategy wasn't inevitable. Republicans had spent a century building a civil rights legacy. Goldwater, Nixon, and Reagan made a strategic choice to pursue white Southern voters by opposing federal civil rights enforcement—against their own party's history.
What they said publicly vs. what they meant. As Lee Atwater explained: when you can't say it directly, you say it abstractly.
How to read this: After explicit racism became politically unacceptable, strategists developed code words that communicated racial messages while maintaining "plausible deniability." Lee Atwater explained this evolution in his 1981 interview.
Opposition to federal civil rights enforcement
Thurmond's 1948 Dixiecrat platform and every Southern Strategy speech since
Crackdown on civil rights protests and Black communities
Nixon 1968: 'Lawlessness is crumbling the foundations of American society'
Opposition to desegregation and busing
1964 GOP platform opposed 'abandonment of neighborhood schools'
Opposition to school integration
Lee Atwater cited this as example of coded racial language
Black single mothers (racist stereotype)
Reagan's 1976 campaign speeches about a Chicago woman
Black communities
Reagan: 'Urban crime' and 'inner city decay'
White voters uncomfortable with civil rights
Nixon's 1969 speech appealing to those opposed to protests
Affirmative action (presented negatively)
1980 GOP platform: 'We oppose quotas'
Civil rights organizations, minorities
Reagan criticizing 'special interest groups'
Blaming poverty on Black culture rather than systemic racism
Welfare reform rhetoric
Defunding programs that disproportionately help minorities
Atwater: 'Now you're talking about cutting taxes... blacks get hurt worse than whites'
Justification for suppressing minority votes
Voter ID laws, purging voter rolls
Watch the Republican platform change from "equal suffrage" (1868) to "oppose busing" (1980).
"The normal condition of all the territory of the United States is that of freedom... we deny the authority of Congress, of a territorial legislature, or of any individuals, to give legal existence to slavery in any territory."
"It is the duty of the Federal Government to protect the rights of persons and property in the Territories."
"The guaranty by Congress of equal suffrage to all loyal men at the South was demanded by every consideration of public safety, of gratitude, and of justice."
"We stand for the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race."
"The Republican Party accepts the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court that racial discrimination in publicly supported schools must be progressively eliminated."
"We oppose federally-sponsored 'inverse discrimination,' whether by the shifting of jobs, or the abandonment of neighborhood schools, for reasons of race."
"We support the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the elimination of discrimination."
"Lawlessness is crumbling the foundations of American society."
"We oppose quotas, busing, and other forms of social engineering... we support local control."
Source: American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara
Politicians who switched from Democratic to Republican.
Governor, Dixiecrat presidential nominee, and long-serving senator whose 1948 revolt against civil rights foreshadowed the Southern Strategy.
Television commentator turned senator who built a conservative base opposing school desegregation orders and civil rights enforcement.
Economist and congressman who aligned with Reagan's fiscal agenda, representing the later economic phase of realignment after the civil rights battles had been decided.
Conservative Democrat who opposed much of the Clinton agenda and found a lasting home in the Republican caucus, illustrating the final stages of the realignment.
Key events in the realignment.
Civil War. Southern states secede to preserve slavery. More than 750,000 Americans die. The Confederacy loses. Slavery is abolished, but the battle over racial equality is just beginning.
Reconstruction. Republicans pass the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments. Black men vote and hold office—Hiram Revels becomes the first Black U.S. Senator (1870), P.B.S. Pinchback serves as Louisiana's governor (1872). But Lincoln is assassinated and Andrew Johnson, a Southern sympathizer, sabotages reform.
The Betrayal. The 1876 election between Republican Rutherford Hayes and Democrat Samuel Tilden ends in disputed returns from Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana—the last states with federal troops. In a backroom deal, Democrats accept Hayes as president; Republicans withdraw troops from the South. 'Redemption' begins: the Klan and paramilitary 'Red Shirts' murder Black voters and white allies. Democrats retake every Southern statehouse.
Jim Crow. Southern states rewrite constitutions to disenfranchise Black voters: poll taxes, literacy tests, grandfather clauses, white primaries. In Louisiana, Black voter registration drops from 130,000 to 1,342.
Wilmington Coup. Armed white supremacists overthrow the elected biracial government of Wilmington, North Carolina. They murder an estimated 60-300 Black citizens. The only successful coup d'état in American history.
Great Migration. Six million Black Americans flee the South for Northern and Western cities. They can vote there. FDR's New Deal begins courting these voters while keeping Dixiecrats in the tent—a coalition that will eventually fracture.
The First Crack. Truman integrates the military. Southern Democrats walk out of the convention. Strom Thurmond runs as a Dixiecrat on a segregation platform and wins four Deep South states.
Brown and Till. Supreme Court orders school desegregation. Southern Democrats launch 'massive resistance.' In Mississippi, 14-year-old Emmett Till is lynched for allegedly whistling at a white woman. His open-casket funeral galvanizes the movement.
Birmingham. Bull Connor turns fire hoses and police dogs on child protesters. The 16th Street Baptist Church is bombed. Four girls are killed. Medgar Evers is assassinated. Kennedy proposes the Civil Rights Act.
The Pivot. Civil Rights Act passes. Goldwater opposes it, wins the GOP nomination, carries the Deep South. In Mississippi, civil rights workers Chaney, Goodman, and Schwerner are murdered. Strom Thurmond switches to Republican.
Blood and Strategy. Voting Rights Act passes after Bloody Sunday in Selma. MLK is assassinated. Nixon runs on 'law and order.' Wallace wins five Southern states. Nixon and Wallace together take the white Southern vote from Democrats.
Neshoba County. Reagan launches his general election campaign at the county fair near Philadelphia, Mississippi—where three civil rights workers were murdered in 1964. He's the first presidential nominee ever to speak at the Fair. He tells the crowd: 'I believe in states' rights.' He sweeps the South.
Completion. Gingrich's 'Contract with America' converts remaining conservative Democrats. Richard Shelby switches parties the day after the GOP wins Congress. By 2000, Bush carries all eleven former Confederate states—the realignment is complete.
Shelby County. Supreme Court guts Voting Rights Act preclearance. Within hours, Texas and North Carolina announce new voting restrictions. The states that seceded in 1861 are now the states restricting voting rights.
The Battle Continues. Record Black turnout helps flip Georgia. State legislatures respond with new voting restrictions. The same states. The same fight. Different century.
Presidential winners in each seceding state, 1860–2024.
| State | 1860 | 1932 | 1948 | 1964 | 1980 | 2000 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Thurmond States' Rights Democrat | Goldwater Republican | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Arkansas | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Florida | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Georgia | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Goldwater Republican | Carter Democrat | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Louisiana | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Thurmond States' Rights Democrat | Goldwater Republican | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Mississippi | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Thurmond States' Rights Democrat | Goldwater Republican | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| North Carolina | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| South Carolina | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Thurmond States' Rights Democrat | Goldwater Republican | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Tennessee | Bell Constitutional Union | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Texas | Breckinridge Southern Democrat | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Republican Ticket Republican |
| Virginia | Bell Constitutional Union | Roosevelt Democrat | Truman Democrat | Johnson Democrat | Reagan Republican | Bush Republican | Democratic Ticket Democrat |
Source: National Archives, Dave Leip's Atlas, Associated Press
Every claim on this page links to a primary source.
All 8 primary source documents have been verified against their archived versions. The quotes cited on this website match the original documents.